Tuesday, May 8 and Wednesday, May 9

Inclement weather will target the South and East following along a cold front, while high pressure builds behind it in the Plains. This cold front will act as a trigger for shower and thunderstorm development along the South and East Coast starting today and into tomorrow. Southern Texas is likely to get the worst of the severe weather today as ample surface moisture and 40-60 kt surface-500 mb bulk shear along this cold front puts them under a severe thunderstorm watch until 7 PM CDT. However, the upside to this is the heavy rainfall associated with these storms will aid to the persistent drought conditions in Texas. The following graphic depicts the amount of rainfall expected by Wednesday at midnight along this cold front that tracks from the Northeast to the across the southern states along the Gulf.

After thunderstorms have moved through Central Illinois for the past several days, we will be seeing some sunshine the next two days. However, with the sunshine we will also have a slight cool down. Tuesday we can expect a high near 74°F after a morning low of 53 °F. Winds will be from the WNW at 6-14 mph with mostly sunny to sunny skies throughout the day. On Wednesday, the high should be a little cooler near 68 °F with a cooler morning low of 47°F. Wind direction doesn’t vary much from the NNW at 5-14 mph and we won’t be seeing any rain with mostly sunny skies expected, so go enjoy some time outside!

Tuesday, May 1st and Wednesday, May 2nd

In Champaign-Urbana on Tuesday we are in store for another warm and wet day with chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the entire day, but the greatest chances of storms will be during the afternoon hours. Tuesday we can expect to reach a high near 73°F with a morning low of 55 °F. Cloud cover will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy throughout the day and winds will be from the SSE to SSW at 3-16 mph. Wednesday things will be heating up with a high near 86°F and a low of 62°F. Also, we can expect windier conditions with a SSW wind at 10-23 mph accompanied with mostly sunny skies.

Tuesday, April 24 and Wednesday, April 25

Wednesday a low- pressure system moves down from Central Canada and creates a warm front across the upper Midwest Wednesday morning along with a cold front extending back behind into the Northern Plains/ Pacific Northwest. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms will be possible north and northeast of this warm front due to instability from relatively high MCAPE values from 2,000-4,000 J/kg. The chances of thunderstorms increase at night for the Midwest and Ohio Valley, as the nocturnal low- level jet will aid thunderstorm development. Within the warm sector of this low- pressure system we will see record high temperatures from the Northern to Southern Plains Wednesday with temperatures possibly breaking 100 degrees in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. The Northern Plains and upper Midwest will also see temperatures in the 50s, 60s and even low 70s. The following graphics show you the large warm sector between the two synoptic fronts, while the next graphic depicts the temperatures expected within the warm sector. The final graphic shows the departure from normal highs for April 25^th with some areas of the Central and Southern Plains expected to be up to 20 degrees above normal! 

In Champaign-Urbana on Tuesday we can expect to see a daytime high of 65°F after a morning low of 39°F. Skies will remain mostly to partly cloudy throughout the day with a possible spotty shower in the morning and/or evening hours. Winds will be from the WNW at 5-11 mph. On Wednesday, temperatures will rise as a warm front moves through Wednesday afternoon bringing temperatures up to a high of 75°F from a morning low of 46°F. As this warm front passes through we will see some chances of rain and isolated thunderstorms ahead of it. Chances of rain and isolated thunderstorms begin Wednesday afternoon around 1 pm and continue on into Wednesday evening. Cloud cover on Wednesday will be partly cloudy with periods of sunshine throughout the day and winds will be from the SSE at 6-14 mph.

Thursday, April 19 and Friday, April 20

A rather large low- pressure system moves across the Central Plains and into the Midwest Thursday into Friday afternoon with the potential to produce some severe thunderstorms in the intersection between Iowa, Kansas and Missouri and extending down into Northwestern Oklahoma. The main danger with these storms is possible damaging winds and hail, however tornadoes are not of much concern right now due to lack of instability, storm-relative helicity and low level moisture. We will likely see the dry line over the Southern Plains meet and be overrun by the progressing cold front moving along the Central Plains during Thursday evening. The cold front will continue to surge northeast and extends southeastward to eastern Texas producing a long line of showers and thunderstorms along it throughout Friday. The following graphic depicts the composite reflectivity expected Friday afternoon showing you just how far this line of storms extends.

Finally, Champaign-Urbana is nearing 80 degrees yet again! Thursdays early morning low only dips down to 50 °F, while the high is expected to get up 78°F in the afternoon. Clouds will be increased during the morning hours, but will begin clearing in the early afternoon leaving the remainder of the day mostly sunny. It will also be a bit breezier with SSW winds ranging from 9-21 mph. As a cold front cuts across Illinois Friday morning, rain showers will follow behind it. Thus, showers are likely in the early morning hours with rain chances continuing into the afternoon hours. As cold air sets in behind the front Friday afternoon, we will only reach a high of 58°F on Friday with a low dipping down to 40°F by Friday evening. Cloud cover will be mostly cloudy to overcast throughout the day into the evening.

Tuesday, April 17 and Wednesday, April 18

Tuesday in Champaign-Urbana will prove to be a beautiful April day after a round of storms has been pouring down on the region over the past few days. Tuesday will be mostly sunny with calm variable winds at 1-6 mph. Temperatures are expected to reach a daytime high of 67 °Fwith an early morning low of only 42°F. Again all is quiet as we move into Wednesday as we expect another mostly sunny day with a high of 70 °F and a low of 47°F expected. It will be slightly windier with a generally S wind at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible.

Thursday, April 12 and Friday, April 13

There will be a slight warm up in store for Champaign-Urbana on Thursday with a high of 62°F, but temperatures will get frigid in the morning with a low of 30°F. The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning from 1am to 8am to warn those that need to protect any sensitive vegetation or plants from the crop-killing temperatures. Thursday will be the last dry day without any rain in the forecast up until next Tuesday! As a high- pressure system continues to sit over the Midwest we’re going to see mostly sunny skies Thursday with a calm S wind at 3-7 mph. For Friday the rainy days start. There will be a slight chance of rain and even some possible thunderstorms up until Friday night. Chances of showers and thunderstorms are lower during the day, but will increase as we head into Friday evening. Temperature wise, we’ll have a high of 64°F with a morning low of 40°F. Cloud cover will remain mostly cloudy throughout the day with a SE wind at 7-19 mph.

Thursday, April 5 and Friday, April 6

Tuesday proved to be a very active severe weather day in Texas with 18 reported tornadoes primarily in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. In addition to the tornadoes we saw damaging wind reports as well as hail as large as baseballs! Check out this link to a video of a tractor- trailer being picked up by one of the Dallas, TX tornadoes! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LN5Izcf-z9k

The threat of tornadoes has diminished in Texas tonight, but there are still thunderstorms plaguing the south and east Thursday. The following video will show you the radar loops that show the Low Pressure system moving through beginning at roughly 7am CDT to 7pm CDT along with the heavy precipitation possible with these storms. The next image shows the 24 accumulation of rain after the storms move through Thursday. Lastly, the Storm Prediction Center also outlines the areas of thunderstorms that have a slight risk of becoming severe. The storms that come Thursday do not have the same severity as yesterday’s storms in Texas, however if these storms continue to move through these regions as repetitively as they have been these areas could begin to deal with the chances of flooding.

For Champaign-Urbana on Thursday we start the day off with a slight chance of rain showers that will start the day off as overcast, but we will see periods of clouds and sun throughout the rest of the day. Temperature wise, temperatures will continue to remain closer to normal with a high of 60°F and an early morning low of 44°F, while winds will be from the NE at 5-13 mph. For Friday, we are under a Freeze Watch from 3am-8am that has the potential to kill crops and sensitive vegetation. The early morning low will drop down to a frigid 33°F, but will pick back up to 61°F during the day. Similarly, the winds on Friday will be ENE becoming ESE at 7-11 mph.

Tuesday, April 3 and Wednesday, April 4

This video depicts the repetitive systems that will continue to propagate across the Central Plains and into the Midwest and Mississippi Valley Tuesday and Wednesday. The two next colorful graphics illustrate the amount of CAPE and negative Lifted Index that prove as substantial ingredients for convection and potentially severe thunderstorms. These two graphics specifically depict the ingredients that will be present Tuesday evening and in areas where the two ingredients overlap we will likely see thunderstorms as they follow along an advancing cold front.

In Champaign-Urbana on Tuesday temperatures will remain at record heat with a high of 85°F and a low of 54°F. We’re also in store for some possible scattered showers and spotty thunderstorms during the late afternoon that have the potential to continue on throughout the evening and into early Wednesday morning. However, before Tuesday’s possible storms we will see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and SE winds turning SW with speeds between 6-13 mph. Come Wednesday, we won’t need to turn on the air conditioning as the high is likely to only reach 69°F, while the low may get down to 46°F. Wednesday will remain mostly sunny, but we may see some isolated thunderstorms and showers developing during the evening hours. In addition, winds will be from the NE at 9-16 mph.

Wednesday, March 28 and Thursday, March 29

Wednesday and Thursday will be warm and dry in the South with some possible thunderstorms in the Southern Plains. Scattered thunderstorms track along the Central Plains along a weak cold front and move into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states early Wednesday. This tracking surface low will also bring rain showers to the Northeast and will turn to snow in Maine. Simultaneously, the Pacific Northwest and western Montana will be hit with more rain and mountain snow as an upper-level shortwave trough moves through Wednesday. The real story however, is these abnormally large temperature departures from normal. The reason the Northern to Central Plains are so much warmer than normal is the lack of snow cover. Check out this map of today’s snow cover compared to March 27^th last year. What a difference!

After a slight break from the unusually high temperatures we’ve been having in Champaign-Urbana, we are returning to the 70s with a high of 75°F on Wednesday and an overnight low of 47°F as a weak cold front passes through Wednesday evening. Winds will be calming from the WSW becoming NW at 8-22mph. We may also see some isolated thunderstorms possibly becoming severe this evening ending early Wednesday morning. Nevertheless, as soon as the risk of thunderstorms clears out tomorrow we will enjoy mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day. Thursday temperatures will cool off a bit, but still remain above average with a high of 62°F and a morning low of 41°F. Thursday will be another sunny day with an ENE wind at 8-12mph.

Tuesday, March 13 and Wednesday, March 14

It is getting hot in here! Temperature departures across the continental U.S. are up to 35 degrees above normal with the exception of the West Coast that has temperatures 20 degrees below normal expected for tomorrow. As warm temperatures and sunny skies dominate the central U.S. tomorrow two surface lows located over the Pacific Northwest and above the Great Lakes will stir things up. These wrap- around lows will bring rain to the Pacific Northwest and East Coast tomorrow, but their rather large dry slots will leave portions of both regions dry. This persistent warmth and rain has been a pattern lately and to prove it check out the graphic to the right which shows the number of records across the nation from this past week. Expect more records to come as warm air advection and instability dominate majority of the country into the midweek.

On Tuesday in Champaign-Urbana the warm temperatures are on the rise, so you can ditch that winter coat. Tomorrow will reach a high of 74°F from a morning low of 48°F. Expect sunny skies throughout the day and calm SW winds becoming more southerly at night from 3-10mph. On Wednesday, things will get toasty as temperatures will get very close to 80°F with a daytime high of 78°F and a low only getting down to 53°F. The day will also be full of sunshine with winds from the SSE turning SSW in the evening hours at 6-17mph. Additionally, prepare yourself for Thursday as we gear up from some convection.

Thursday, March 8 and Friday, March 9

A long cold front extending from the upper Midwest to the Southwest propagates towards the Midwest and Mississippi Valley tonight bringing rain showers and some thunderstorms with it. This line of storms will shower the East Coast later in the day Thursday and into Friday morning. As this cold front brings storms, behind it follows a very sharp temperature gradient that will drop temperatures up to 30 degrees by early Friday morning! The following graphic depicts just how sharp this temperature gradient is behind this cold front that moves over half the country tonight. On the cold side of the front you see temperatures in the 20s and 30s and on the warm side temperatures are as high as the 60s and 70s with some of these drastic temperature changes occurring across the same state!

For Thursday in Champaign-Urbana we will see a round of rain showers and thunderstorms roll through in the morning hours, but storms should be clearing out by tomorrow afternoon leaving the remainder of the day mostly cloudy. After these storms pass through we are also going to see winds calm and temperatures drop during the day Thursday as this cold front passes over us. The high of 50°F tomorrow will actually occur in the early morning and temperatures will continue to drop to an evening low of 35°F. In regards to the calming winds, we’ll start the day out with a stronger NNW wind that will calm by the evening with speeds ranging form 8-23mph. On Friday temperatures will be cooler, but skies will be sunny and winds will be calmer with a high of 46°F and an early morning low of 27°F with a NNW wind at 8-14mph.

Tuesday, March 6 and Wednesday, March 7

High pressure dominates the eastern portion of the country on Tuesday bringing calm and mostly sunny skies. However, warm air advection from the South will bring warm and windy conditions to the Central Plains, southeastern Midwest and Mississippi Valley. While the conditions remain primarily quiet in the East, a cold front passes over the Pacific Northwest crossing the Northern Plains and Rocky Mountains Tuesday that will bring snow and rain showers behind it. As this cold front slides eastward Wednesday it will showers and strong winds to the Central Plains and Midwest into Wednesday evening. The following graphic depicts the warm air advection that will bring warm and windy conditions to the Central Plains, Midwest and Mississippi for Tuesday.

In Champaign-Urbana on Tuesday temperatures will rise up to 60°F from a morning low of 29 °F as a strong warm SSE wind moving at 14-31mph and gusting up to 39 mph will be accompanied by sunny skies. For Wednesday, warm air doesn’t go anywhere as the daytime high could reach up to 62°F with a low of only 42°F. Windy conditions will persist Wednesday with a SSW at 16-33 mph. During the day Wednesday, skies will be partly cloudy, but clouds will increase as we shift to the evening hours. As the clouds increase Wednesday night we will likely see rain showers and even some possible thunderstorms.

Thursday, March 1st and Friday, March 2nd

This leap day proved to be a very active one with severe thunderstorms producing deadly tornados in southern Illinois and Missouri leading to severe destruction and 12 reported deaths thus far. The approximately 30 reported tornados flattened through the southern Midwest and Ohio Valley producing an EF4 tornado in Harrisburg, Illinois that left the town in ruins. After this lively Wednesday, Thursday will prove to be a quite day in between storms as a strong low generating in the Southern Plains Thursday will cause widespread severe weather across the southern Midwest, Ohio and Mississippi Valley on Friday. As this low advances northeast toward the Great Lakes late Thursday evening into Friday it will gather moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and strong winds from the West and South producing suitable ingredients for breeding tornados. These severe thunderstorms will also be accompanied by strong winds greater than 55mph and large hail. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center convective outlook graphic to the right depicts the greatest risk of severe thunderstorms having the potential to produce tornados. Areas in this moderate risk should remain cautious and alert of weather conditions throughout the day as tornado watches and warnings will most likely be popping up throughout the day Friday.

After a very blustery day in Champaign-Urbana on Wednesday, however weather conditions will remain calm for Thursday with a high of 51°F and an early morning low dipping down to 32°F. Winds will be calming by the afternoon with a WSW wind become SE at night from 6-21mph. Enjoy Thursday skies as they will be sunny, but as Friday nears another round of severe thunderstorms will be wrecking havoc on the area. Friday will have rain showers and possible severe thunderstorms coming through the area starting Friday morning as a strong low pressure center cuts NE across Illinois. Skies will be overcast to mostly cloudy throughout the day with a high up to 56°F getting down to 34°F in the evening as a cold front moves over us. Winds will be from the S shifting to the W at 10-26mph with stronger wind gusts up to 35mph possible.

Tuesday, February 28 and Wednesday, February 29

For the nation Tuesday temperatures will be below average in the Northern Plains, but for the Central Plains, Ohio Valley and Southeast they will be far above average. Those living along the Gulf Coast may see overnight lows as warm as the 50s and 60s. The warm weather will continue for these areas as a center of low pressure sits over the Central Plains Tuesday afternoon. As a cold front cuts across the middle of Texas severe thunderstorms may occur in Texas and Oklahoma. However, further north heavy snow will target the upper Midwest and Northern Plains over the next two days with snow accumulations reaching up to 1 ft in some places. This winter storm will press on into the Northeast for Wednesday dumping heavy rain to a wintry mix and snow over the region. The following graphic illustrates CAPE, which is the Convective Available Potential Energy of a parcel if lifted vertically through the atmosphere. Large CAPE provides instability and suitable conditions for strong thunderstorms. As you can see from the graphic there is a suitable amount of CAPE to produce thunderstorms over parts of Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma for Tuesday night.

Warm temperatures are once again headed for Champaign-Urbana Tuesday and Wednesday! Tuesday will start out on the cooler side with a morning low of 26°F , but throughout the day temperatures will jump all the way to 51°F . Temperatures will stay remain steady over the course of the evening Tuesday due to a blanket of clouds that cover us the entire day. Be prepared to hear some possible rumbles of thunder Tuesday night with showers and thunderstorms developing in the evening hours. On Tuesday winds will be from ESE at 9-20mph continually increasing during the day. Wednesday will be a great ending to this February with a high possible of up to 59°F as Champaign sits right in the warm sector of a mid-latitude cyclone. During the overnight hours temperatures luckily won’t drop to freezing with a low of 43°F. Skies will be partly cloudy Wednesday and winds will be stronger at 17-31mph from the SW. Chances of rain showers may linger in the morning, but should clear out by the afternoon.

Thursday, February 23 and Friday, February 24

Weather in majority of the nation will be very active over the next two days as two strong fairly close surface lows centered over the Northeast and Midwest progress on Thursday. The system centered over the Midwest will bring severe thunderstorms and ingredients for tornadoes to the Southeast Thursday and destructive winds and rain to the East Coast by Friday. Meanwhile, this same system will coat the upper Midwest with snow accumulating up to 8” by Friday afternoon. Unfortunately, the Northeast has the fate of having to suffer through not one, but two strong low-pressure systems Thursday into late Friday that will bring them rain to potentially heavy snow. At the same time with the chaotic weather off to the north and east, majority of the South and Southwest will be experiencing dry and warmer weather with some areas expected to break record highs Thursday. Lucky them!

The following graphic is a valid forecast for Thursday afternoon that displays all the various weather that will be associated with these two systems.

Thursday in Champaign-Urbana will be warm and 11 degrees above average for this time of year with a daytime high of 51 °F and a low of 34°F. Expect scattered showers throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours with mostly cloudy skies throughout the day. Winds will be from the E at 6-17mph. As a low pressure system tracks just south of Illinois we will see temperatures begin to drop overnight on Friday. The daytime high will only get to 39°F on Friday and begin dropping overnight giving us a low of 26°F by midnight. Rain/snow showers are likely in the morning hours on Friday, but most of the snow that reaches the ground will melt. In addition to the already colder temperatures expect stronger winds from the WNW at 16-22mph that will makes temperatures feel more like the teens and 20s. Sky conditions will be mostly cloudy to overcast throughout the day, but clouds will begin clearing at night.

Tuesday, February 21 and Wednesday, February 22

Rain showers and some light snow is due to hit the Midwest tonight and tomorrow. The pressure trough associated with these storms droops down over the Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley, causing stronger winds over the area. However, these storms miss the Southern Plains leaving the South primarily dry for Tuesday. Rain and mountain snow also pinpoints the Northwest Tuesday with winds gusting up to 60 mph on the leeside of the Rocky Mountains. The following graphic depicts the pressure trough at 925mb over the Midwest, valid Tuesday at noon to show you where to expect breezy conditions in the Southern Midwest and Ohio Valley. The winds at the surface will not be as strong as the upper-level map displays, but it can give you a better idea of where the stronger winds will be located.

In Champaign-Urbana, however, we’re in store for a nice warm up throughout the week! For Tuesday, we can expect a high of 45°F with a morning low of 33°F. As a system advances over the Midwest tomorrow, we’re going to see some morning rain showers and overcast skies. As we move into the afternoon hours the rain and clouds will subside leaving the remainder of the day partly cloudy. Tomorrow, expect breezy conditions with a SW wind at 15-22mph and gusts possible from 30-40mph. Don’t be discouraged as the mid-week slump approaches on Wednesday because the warm temperatures will lift your spirits! On Wednesday, we will have a high near 53°F with a low of 32°F in the morning. Winds will come from the SW at 8-16mph with mostly cloudy skies throughout the day. There will be a small chance of rain in the afternoon and into the evening hours, but I wouldn’t change my plans over it.

Thursday, February 16 and Friday, February 17

A rather widespread low- pressure system is making its way through the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi Valley and Midwest tonight causing thunderstorms in the South and rain in the Midwest. The outer edges of this cyclone will also bring possible snow to Wisconsin and Michigan and a possible freezing drizzle to areas of the Northeast by Thursday morning. The thunderstorms and showers associated with this system may produce flash flooding along the Gulf Coast causing potentially major destruction to the area. Moving into Thursday afternoon and evening this system will drench the East Coast with rain and some wintry mixes further north. The good news is as the remnants of this system pass over the East Coast late Thursday night the Midwest and Central Plains will be left with calm and clear conditions as a center of high pressure builds up behind it. However, the South isn’t quite as lucky as another low -pressure system lines up right behind the first and brings rain from the Southwest extending along the Gulf Coast and into northern Florida for Friday. The following graphic is valid for Friday at midnight and the blue colors indicated 6-hour accumulated precipitation. As you can see the rain leaves the East Coast late Thursday and the Midwest and Central Plains stay dry to start the day Friday.

For Thursday in Champaign-Urbana, we will see temperatures in the 40s with a daytime high of 43°F and an overnight low of 33°F with a WNW wind ranging from 7-17mph. We will start the day off mostly cloudy with some possible rain showers or drizzle, but after the early morning hours the clouds will move out and the remainder of the day will be mostly sunny. Friday we will flirt with 50 degrees with a high of 47°F. No complaints here! However, despite the warmer temperatures during the day, we will start off Friday with temperatures as cold as 27 °F. Winds will be from the SW at 6-16mph with mostly sunny skies throughout the day.

Tuesday, February 14 and Wednesday, February 15

Happy Valentine’s Day to everyone! While many of you will be in a loving mood tomorrow, you may not be loving some of this weather…

Snowstorms trail across the Plains and Great Lakes into the Appalachian Mountains dropping up to 3 inches of snow in parts of West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Maryland tonight into tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Southeast is being hit with rain or a possible wintry mix for tomorrow. Rain will also affect the Pacific Northwest Tuesday, but clears out for the most part by Wednesday. The following graphic shows the snow accumulation over the next 48 hours, although the accumulation is small the area of snow cover is fairly widespread throughout the continental U.S.

In Champaign-Urbana tomorrow morning something will be falling from the sky, but it won’t be candy hearts or Cupid’s arrows, instead expect to see a freezing drizzle or some flurries. The high for tomorrow will reach 37°F with a morning low of 27°F. The cold precipitation will clear out, but skies will remain overcast throughout the day and winds will be from the SSW at 6-12 mph. For Wednesday temperatures pick back up into the 40s with a daytime high of 44°F and low of 28°F. Despite the slight warm up we have another round of precipitation coming, but this time in the form of rain. Skies will be mostly cloudy throughout the day with a chance of showers in the afternoon and into the evening hours. Winds will be from the S between 7-15mph becoming strongest in the overnight hours.

Sunday, February 12 and Monday, February 13

Cold air dominates most of the continental U.S. today and will continue to into tomorrow with high temperatures 15 degrees below average in the Northeast and 10-25 degrees below average in the South. Meanwhile a low- pressure system brewing in the Southwest will track up to the Great Lakes by Monday afternoon changing from rain or a wintry mix in the South to snow once it hits the Midwest with some areas accumulating snow up to 6 inches. The real concern for the next few days will be the wind chill making temperatures feel close -20°F in the Northern Plains and Northeast! The following graphic shows what temperatures will feel like with the wind chill for this Sunday. All I can say is BURRRR!

As the cold air continues to sit over Champaign-Urbana this weekend we will see a high on Sunday of only 30 °F with a frigid low of 9°F! Despite the cold the clouds continue to stay away with sunny skies throughout the day and a WNW wind at 8-17mph. However, we’re not in the clear just yet as another round of snow is due to hit us around Monday afternoon and continue until after midnight. Cloud cover will be mostly cloudy and overcast for the day. Regarding the temperatures for Monday we will continue to hang out in the 3os with a daytime high of 33°F and a low of 17°F with S winds at 6-13mph.

Thursday, February 9 and Friday, February 10

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have reported that this past January was the fourth warmest on record for the continental U.S. The average temperature this January was 36.3 °F nearly 6 degrees above average. Maybe we can turn things around this February and break some more records?!

As we approach the weekend, high pressure dominates majority of the country Thursday, which means primarily sunny skies and dry conditions. Thursday into the day Friday a blast of cold arctic air will dip down from Central Canada and drop temperatures across the Northern Plains, Midwest and into the Northeast through the weekend. Friday will also see some showers turning to snow as this system extends northeast from Texas across Arkansas and Kentucky and as far north as the western portion of the Northeast and the Great Lakes.

Cold temperatures continue to plague the Champaign-Urbana area for Thursday and Friday. During the day Thursday highs will only get to 37 °F with a morning low of 20°F. Despite the cold temperatures the clouds will clear out this evening and we will have sunny and clear skies for tomorrow. Winds will be out of the SW at 6-13 mph. The cold doesn’t go anywhere for Friday with a high of 34°F and low of 23°F, but with the wind chill temperatures will feel more like they are in the lower 20s and teens. Skies will be mostly to partly cloudy throughout the day with a chance of some snow flurries in the late afternoon and a NW turning to N wind at 10-19 mph.

Tuesday, February 7 and Wednesday, February 8

A fast moving low -pressure system tracks across the Plains into the Ohio Valley and Northeast dropping some light snow and rain as it passes through Tuesday and into Wednesday. A strong ridge will build behind this system bringing calm weather to the Northern and Central Plains for the day Wednesday. Meanwhile rain, wind and snow target the West Coast for Tuesday. The graphic (to the right) indicates the high pressure that builds over the Central states early Wednesday with the purple color indicating areas of precipitation.

For international news, a strong earthquake coming in at 6.7-magnitude hit the Central Philippines early Monday morning (late Sunday night in U.S.) toppling buildings, causing landslides and reportedly killing 43 people thus far.

For Champaign-Urbana, we can expect some minor winter weather to head our direction. For Tuesday, we will still reach a daytime high of 41°F with an early morning low of 27 °F. Cloud cover throughout the day Tuesday will remain mostly cloudy with a chance of rain during the day turning to a wintry mix or light snow overnight as the temperature drops below freezing. Winds will alternate from the W/NW to N with speeds increasing in the later hours at 5-15 mph. For Wednesday, temperatures will sadly drop back down to the 30s with a high of 34°F and an overnight low of 24°F. Wednesday will become partly sunny after a small chance of flurries in the morning hours along with a NW becoming W wind at 5-10mph.

Thursday, February 2 and Friday, February 3

As most of the nation has remained calm this week, a low pressure system sitting over the Southwest tomorrow afternoon will bring chaos to the Rockies and Plains starting late Thursday into Friday evening. This system will cause a wide range of precipitation with blizzards and heavy snowfall anywhere from 6-14 inches effecting the Central Rockies and Plains. This low will also create heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast and potentially powerful thunderstorms in parts of Texas and Oklahoma that will produce damaging winds and hail. Good day to be a Midwesterner!

For the Champaign-Urbana area we have seen a string of beautiful days, however somehow amazingly enough we have not managed to break any records. As the new month begins, we gear up for Groundhog Day tomorrow and we can expect a day that makes us think that the groundhog won't see it’s shadow and winter is almost over! Tomorrow, we can see a daytime high of 52 °F and an early morning low of 33°F. Most of the day will remain mostly sunny with a calm W/NW wind at 3-7 mph. For Friday, another above-normal day with a high of 52°F and a low of 35°F. Cloud cover will be partly sunny throughout the day becoming mostly cloudy overnight with a possible chance of showers in the evening hours. Winds will be mainly from the E ranging from 10-20 mph.

Tuesday, January 31 and Wednesday, February 1

Most of the nation will remain dry for Tuesday, but a few showers will move over the South into the Southeast Tuesday into Wednesday with showers becoming more intense along the Gulf Coast. An upper level low sitting over the Northern Plains tracks to the East dropping some light now and wintry mix over the Great Lakes and will continue to target parts of the Northeast up until Wednesday morning. Temperatures over most of the nation are predicted to be at or above average for both tomorrow and Wednesday with some areas in the South reaching temperatures up to 20 degrees above normal for tomorrow. The graphic to the right shows the departures from normal temperatures throughout the nation and as you can see all of the nation’s highs appear to be at or above average for January 31.

After an unusually pleasant January day in Champaign-Urbana, with sunny skies and highs up into the 50s, we will see some clouds and rain move over us later in the day tomorrow. Although the chance of rain increases throughout the course of the day tomorrow most of the day will remain partly sunny. Temperatures will stay above average with a daytime high reaching up to 57°F with an early morning low of 40°F. Expect breezy conditions with a warm SW wind at 15-25mph and gusts reaching up to 40mph. For Wednesday, rain chances clear out, but the clouds don’t with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies expected during the day and temperatures remaining warm with a high of 48°F, low of 34°F and a calm NW wind at 3-9mph.

Sunday, January 29 and Monday, 30

High pressure moves over majority of the nation today with only some snow and rain chances over the Central Great Lakes. A cold front passes over the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday and Monday dropping some snow with it; the greatest snow accumulations possible east of Lake Ontario. A large warm up is expected for the Southern US moving north into the Central Plains as temperatures climb to the 40s and 50s near Tennessee and the 60s to 70s along the Gulf of Mexico for Sunday. A storm in the Pacific also brings rain and snow to the Pacific Northwest and along the Northern Plains yet again for Sunday and Monday. Strong winds will also hit parts of Montana and Wyoming with gusts reaching 60 mph.

For the Champaign-Urbana area, today we saw sunny skies throughout the day, temperatures remained in the upper 30s, but it was breezy as a westerly wind brought wind gusts up to 26 mph. For Sunday there is a slight chance of flurries in the morning, but clouds will clear out leaving the day partly sunny and cooler with a high of only 33 °F and an overnight low of 27 °F with a W/NW at 15-25 mph. However, a nice warm up is in store for us Monday as we are expecting to see a high temperature of up to 50 °F with an early morning low of 28 °F, not bad for the end of January! Cloud cover throughout the day will remain partly sunny with a S/SW wind at 10-20mph with gusts as high as 25 mph and no precipitation.

Thursday, January 26 and Friday, January 27

Nationally, there has been a roller coaster of weather with tornadoes in the South and blizzard warnings in the Pacific Northwest. Five tornadoes have already been reported in eastern Texas and western Louisiana as severe thunderstorms rolled through today. This upper level low has been producing a mix of thunderstorms to rain showers and wintry mixes as it moved up into the Midwest. This system will continue to track to the Northeast tomorrow bringing rain and wintry mixes through the Southeast up into the Eastern Great Lakes.

Rain continues along the East Coast for Friday, while all severe thunderstorm threats end after Friday morning. The Pacific Northwest continues to see snow and rain tomorrow with winter weather advisories and even blizzard warnings, but high pressure moves over the area by Friday keeping conditions dry for the most part.

For Champaign-Urbana, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 6am Thursday morning for snow, sleet and light icing. Road conditions are bad due to melting and refreezing of precipitation on the ground. There is a slight chance of freezing rain/rain in the early morning hours turning into rain before noon. Clouds clear out around noon and we will see partly sunny skies to mostly sunny skies with temperatures increasing to a high of 42 °F with an overnight low of 26 °F winds from the N/NW between 3-10 mph. Friday morning clouds move back in staying partly cloudy throughout the day, but temperatures still rebound with a high of 42°F during the day and a low of 27°F with a W wind at 5-10mph. Friday night also has a chance of a wintry mix as temperatures drop overnight.

Tuesday, January 24 and Wednesday, January 25

A low- pressure system sets up over the Great Lakes and may bring snow and rain with it as it passes over the Great Lakes and Northeast tomorrow. Meanwhile, a warm front in the South will raise temperatures as far north as the Central Mississippi Valley and up along the East Coast keeping temperatures in the 50, 60s and even 70s until Wednesday. High pressure and calm skies over the Northern and Central Plains tomorrow will move off to the Northwest while rain showers and possible thunderstorms remain in the Southern Plains and Southeast into Wednesday. The Pacific Northwest into the Central Rockies will also see snow/rain tomorrow and for Wednesday, but the heaviest snow -fall is expected in the Northern Rockies.

For Champaign-Urbana, we can expect to see more typical high temperatures for Central Illinois in January with a high temperature of 35 °F for Tuesday, with the low temperature getting down to 23 °F. Skies will remain clear and mostly sunny throughout the day with a mild W/NW winds at 5-10 mph. For Wednesday, we can expect a slight warm up with a high temperature reaching 38 °F and a low of 30 °F. Most of the day will remain mostly cloudy with a calm ESE wind at 5 mph. There is no precipitation expected for Tuesday, but a possible isolated shower may happen during Wednesday afternoon.

Hello all! My name is Natalie and I'm a senior at the University of Illinois in Champaign-Urbana majoring in Atmospheric Science. I have created this blog to function as a weather discussion that will test and evaluate my forecasting skills.

My plan is to produce a forecast every Monday, Wednesday and Friday/Saturday that will predict the next two days. I will make a local forecast for Champaign-Urbana along with a more generalized national forecast. The local forecast will include high/low temperatures, precipitation type and amount, cloud cover, wind speed/direction along with any possible severe weather threats and warnings that may come into play.

I will also comment after each post to validate my forecast and assess my accuracy. You can also expect to see visuals and videos to provide you with a more interactive experience.

I hope you find my blog helpful and interesting! Stay tuned!