For the nation Tuesday temperatures will be below average in the Northern Plains, but for the Central Plains, Ohio Valley and Southeast they will be far above average. Those living along the Gulf Coast may see overnight lows as warm as the 50s and 60s. The warm weather will continue for these areas as a center of low pressure sits over the Central Plains Tuesday afternoon. As a cold front cuts across the middle of Texas severe thunderstorms may occur in Texas and Oklahoma. However, further north heavy snow will target the upper Midwest and Northern Plains over the next two days with snow accumulations reaching up to 1 ft in some places. This winter storm will press on into the Northeast for Wednesday dumping heavy rain to a wintry mix and snow over the region. The following graphic illustrates CAPE, which is the Convective Available Potential Energy of a parcel if lifted vertically through the atmosphere. Large CAPE provides instability and suitable conditions for strong thunderstorms. As you can see from the graphic there is a suitable amount of CAPE to produce thunderstorms over parts of Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma for Tuesday night.Monday, February 27, 2012
Tuesday, February 28 and Wednesday, February 29
For the nation Tuesday temperatures will be below average in the Northern Plains, but for the Central Plains, Ohio Valley and Southeast they will be far above average. Those living along the Gulf Coast may see overnight lows as warm as the 50s and 60s. The warm weather will continue for these areas as a center of low pressure sits over the Central Plains Tuesday afternoon. As a cold front cuts across the middle of Texas severe thunderstorms may occur in Texas and Oklahoma. However, further north heavy snow will target the upper Midwest and Northern Plains over the next two days with snow accumulations reaching up to 1 ft in some places. This winter storm will press on into the Northeast for Wednesday dumping heavy rain to a wintry mix and snow over the region. The following graphic illustrates CAPE, which is the Convective Available Potential Energy of a parcel if lifted vertically through the atmosphere. Large CAPE provides instability and suitable conditions for strong thunderstorms. As you can see from the graphic there is a suitable amount of CAPE to produce thunderstorms over parts of Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma for Tuesday night.
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For Tuesday my high and low temperatures were just off by a few degrees with a low 3 degrees colder and a high 2 degrees warmer. I was correct about an evening thunderstorm which brought down only a small accumulation of 0.1" of rain. Winds were in fact from the ESE on Tuesday with an average wind speed of 11.2mph with a max speed of 20, so they were in fact in the range I predicted. My forecast for Wednesday was too cold for the low and too warm for the actual high and low of 66°F and 36°F. Winds were out of the SW with an average speed of 24.1mph and within the range and direction I expected. The small chance of rain showers in the morning cleared out by Tuesday night leaving Wednesday dry and partly cloudy.
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