This leap day proved to be a very active one with severe thunderstorms producing deadly tornados in southern Illinois and Missouri leading to severe destruction and 12 reported deaths thus far. The approximately 30 reported tornados flattened through the southern Midwest and Ohio Valley producing an EF4 tornado in Harrisburg, Illinois that left the town in ruins. After this lively Wednesday, Thursday will prove to be a quite day in between storms as a strong low generating in the Southern Plains Thursday will cause widespread severe weather across the southern Midwest, Ohio and Mississippi Valley on Friday. As this low advances northeast toward the Great Lakes late Thursday evening into Friday it will gather moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and strong winds from the West and South producing suitable ingredients for breeding tornados. These severe thunderstorms will also be accompanied by strong winds greater than 55mph and large hail. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center convective outlook graphic to the right depicts the greatest risk of severe thunderstorms having the potential to produce tornados. Areas in this moderate risk should remain cautious and alert of weather conditions throughout the day as tornado watches and warnings will most likely be popping up throughout the day Friday. After a very blustery day in Champaign-Urbana on Wednesday, however weather conditions will remain calm for Thursday with a high of 51°F and an early morning low dipping down to 32°F. Winds will be calming by the afternoon with a WSW wind become SE at night from 6-21mph. Enjoy Thursday skies as they will be sunny, but as Friday nears another round of severe thunderstorms will be wrecking havoc on the area. Friday will have rain showers and possible severe thunderstorms coming through the area starting Friday morning as a strong low pressure center cuts NE across Illinois. Skies will be overcast to mostly cloudy throughout the day with a high up to 56°F getting down to 34°F in the evening as a cold front moves over us. Winds will be from the S shifting to the W at 10-26mph with stronger wind gusts up to 35mph possible.
My high forecast for Wednesday was a little low as the actual high reached 54°F, but my predicted low was very close and only 1 degree colder than the observed low. Winds were primarily from the W, rather than WSW and were slightly slower than expected with an average wind speed of 10.3 mph. My forecast for Friday was nearly a bust as the expected thunderstorms and rain cleared out by noon and were replaced by sunshine. The actual high for Friday was 3 degrees warmer than my forecasted high, while the observed low was 2 degrees colder than what I believed it would be. We did end up seeing rain and thunderstorms in the morning that accumulated 0.7" along with a short hail storm. The observed winds were from the W, but the wind speed averaged a little slower than what I predicted at 15.5 mph.
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