Tuesday, February 28 and Wednesday, February 29

For the nation Tuesday temperatures will be below average in the Northern Plains, but for the Central Plains, Ohio Valley and Southeast they will be far above average. Those living along the Gulf Coast may see overnight lows as warm as the 50s and 60s. The warm weather will continue for these areas as a center of low pressure sits over the Central Plains Tuesday afternoon. As a cold front cuts across the middle of Texas severe thunderstorms may occur in Texas and Oklahoma. However, further north heavy snow will target the upper Midwest and Northern Plains over the next two days with snow accumulations reaching up to 1 ft in some places. This winter storm will press on into the Northeast for Wednesday dumping heavy rain to a wintry mix and snow over the region. The following graphic illustrates CAPE, which is the Convective Available Potential Energy of a parcel if lifted vertically through the atmosphere. Large CAPE provides instability and suitable conditions for strong thunderstorms. As you can see from the graphic there is a suitable amount of CAPE to produce thunderstorms over parts of Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma for Tuesday night.

Warm temperatures are once again headed for Champaign-Urbana Tuesday and Wednesday! Tuesday will start out on the cooler side with a morning low of 26°F , but throughout the day temperatures will jump all the way to 51°F . Temperatures will stay remain steady over the course of the evening Tuesday due to a blanket of clouds that cover us the entire day. Be prepared to hear some possible rumbles of thunder Tuesday night with showers and thunderstorms developing in the evening hours. On Tuesday winds will be from ESE at 9-20mph continually increasing during the day. Wednesday will be a great ending to this February with a high possible of up to 59°F as Champaign sits right in the warm sector of a mid-latitude cyclone. During the overnight hours temperatures luckily won’t drop to freezing with a low of 43°F. Skies will be partly cloudy Wednesday and winds will be stronger at 17-31mph from the SW. Chances of rain showers may linger in the morning, but should clear out by the afternoon.

Thursday, February 23 and Friday, February 24

Weather in majority of the nation will be very active over the next two days as two strong fairly close surface lows centered over the Northeast and Midwest progress on Thursday. The system centered over the Midwest will bring severe thunderstorms and ingredients for tornadoes to the Southeast Thursday and destructive winds and rain to the East Coast by Friday. Meanwhile, this same system will coat the upper Midwest with snow accumulating up to 8” by Friday afternoon. Unfortunately, the Northeast has the fate of having to suffer through not one, but two strong low-pressure systems Thursday into late Friday that will bring them rain to potentially heavy snow. At the same time with the chaotic weather off to the north and east, majority of the South and Southwest will be experiencing dry and warmer weather with some areas expected to break record highs Thursday. Lucky them!

The following graphic is a valid forecast for Thursday afternoon that displays all the various weather that will be associated with these two systems.

Thursday in Champaign-Urbana will be warm and 11 degrees above average for this time of year with a daytime high of 51 °F and a low of 34°F. Expect scattered showers throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours with mostly cloudy skies throughout the day. Winds will be from the E at 6-17mph. As a low pressure system tracks just south of Illinois we will see temperatures begin to drop overnight on Friday. The daytime high will only get to 39°F on Friday and begin dropping overnight giving us a low of 26°F by midnight. Rain/snow showers are likely in the morning hours on Friday, but most of the snow that reaches the ground will melt. In addition to the already colder temperatures expect stronger winds from the WNW at 16-22mph that will makes temperatures feel more like the teens and 20s. Sky conditions will be mostly cloudy to overcast throughout the day, but clouds will begin clearing at night.

Tuesday, February 21 and Wednesday, February 22

Rain showers and some light snow is due to hit the Midwest tonight and tomorrow. The pressure trough associated with these storms droops down over the Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley, causing stronger winds over the area. However, these storms miss the Southern Plains leaving the South primarily dry for Tuesday. Rain and mountain snow also pinpoints the Northwest Tuesday with winds gusting up to 60 mph on the leeside of the Rocky Mountains. The following graphic depicts the pressure trough at 925mb over the Midwest, valid Tuesday at noon to show you where to expect breezy conditions in the Southern Midwest and Ohio Valley. The winds at the surface will not be as strong as the upper-level map displays, but it can give you a better idea of where the stronger winds will be located.

In Champaign-Urbana, however, we’re in store for a nice warm up throughout the week! For Tuesday, we can expect a high of 45°F with a morning low of 33°F. As a system advances over the Midwest tomorrow, we’re going to see some morning rain showers and overcast skies. As we move into the afternoon hours the rain and clouds will subside leaving the remainder of the day partly cloudy. Tomorrow, expect breezy conditions with a SW wind at 15-22mph and gusts possible from 30-40mph. Don’t be discouraged as the mid-week slump approaches on Wednesday because the warm temperatures will lift your spirits! On Wednesday, we will have a high near 53°F with a low of 32°F in the morning. Winds will come from the SW at 8-16mph with mostly cloudy skies throughout the day. There will be a small chance of rain in the afternoon and into the evening hours, but I wouldn’t change my plans over it.

Thursday, February 16 and Friday, February 17

A rather widespread low- pressure system is making its way through the Southern Plains and into the Mississippi Valley and Midwest tonight causing thunderstorms in the South and rain in the Midwest. The outer edges of this cyclone will also bring possible snow to Wisconsin and Michigan and a possible freezing drizzle to areas of the Northeast by Thursday morning. The thunderstorms and showers associated with this system may produce flash flooding along the Gulf Coast causing potentially major destruction to the area. Moving into Thursday afternoon and evening this system will drench the East Coast with rain and some wintry mixes further north. The good news is as the remnants of this system pass over the East Coast late Thursday night the Midwest and Central Plains will be left with calm and clear conditions as a center of high pressure builds up behind it. However, the South isn’t quite as lucky as another low -pressure system lines up right behind the first and brings rain from the Southwest extending along the Gulf Coast and into northern Florida for Friday. The following graphic is valid for Friday at midnight and the blue colors indicated 6-hour accumulated precipitation. As you can see the rain leaves the East Coast late Thursday and the Midwest and Central Plains stay dry to start the day Friday.

For Thursday in Champaign-Urbana, we will see temperatures in the 40s with a daytime high of 43°F and an overnight low of 33°F with a WNW wind ranging from 7-17mph. We will start the day off mostly cloudy with some possible rain showers or drizzle, but after the early morning hours the clouds will move out and the remainder of the day will be mostly sunny. Friday we will flirt with 50 degrees with a high of 47°F. No complaints here! However, despite the warmer temperatures during the day, we will start off Friday with temperatures as cold as 27 °F. Winds will be from the SW at 6-16mph with mostly sunny skies throughout the day.

Tuesday, February 14 and Wednesday, February 15

Happy Valentine’s Day to everyone! While many of you will be in a loving mood tomorrow, you may not be loving some of this weather…

Snowstorms trail across the Plains and Great Lakes into the Appalachian Mountains dropping up to 3 inches of snow in parts of West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Maryland tonight into tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Southeast is being hit with rain or a possible wintry mix for tomorrow. Rain will also affect the Pacific Northwest Tuesday, but clears out for the most part by Wednesday. The following graphic shows the snow accumulation over the next 48 hours, although the accumulation is small the area of snow cover is fairly widespread throughout the continental U.S.

In Champaign-Urbana tomorrow morning something will be falling from the sky, but it won’t be candy hearts or Cupid’s arrows, instead expect to see a freezing drizzle or some flurries. The high for tomorrow will reach 37°F with a morning low of 27°F. The cold precipitation will clear out, but skies will remain overcast throughout the day and winds will be from the SSW at 6-12 mph. For Wednesday temperatures pick back up into the 40s with a daytime high of 44°F and low of 28°F. Despite the slight warm up we have another round of precipitation coming, but this time in the form of rain. Skies will be mostly cloudy throughout the day with a chance of showers in the afternoon and into the evening hours. Winds will be from the S between 7-15mph becoming strongest in the overnight hours.

Sunday, February 12 and Monday, February 13

Cold air dominates most of the continental U.S. today and will continue to into tomorrow with high temperatures 15 degrees below average in the Northeast and 10-25 degrees below average in the South. Meanwhile a low- pressure system brewing in the Southwest will track up to the Great Lakes by Monday afternoon changing from rain or a wintry mix in the South to snow once it hits the Midwest with some areas accumulating snow up to 6 inches. The real concern for the next few days will be the wind chill making temperatures feel close -20°F in the Northern Plains and Northeast! The following graphic shows what temperatures will feel like with the wind chill for this Sunday. All I can say is BURRRR!

As the cold air continues to sit over Champaign-Urbana this weekend we will see a high on Sunday of only 30 °F with a frigid low of 9°F! Despite the cold the clouds continue to stay away with sunny skies throughout the day and a WNW wind at 8-17mph. However, we’re not in the clear just yet as another round of snow is due to hit us around Monday afternoon and continue until after midnight. Cloud cover will be mostly cloudy and overcast for the day. Regarding the temperatures for Monday we will continue to hang out in the 3os with a daytime high of 33°F and a low of 17°F with S winds at 6-13mph.

Thursday, February 9 and Friday, February 10

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have reported that this past January was the fourth warmest on record for the continental U.S. The average temperature this January was 36.3 °F nearly 6 degrees above average. Maybe we can turn things around this February and break some more records?!

As we approach the weekend, high pressure dominates majority of the country Thursday, which means primarily sunny skies and dry conditions. Thursday into the day Friday a blast of cold arctic air will dip down from Central Canada and drop temperatures across the Northern Plains, Midwest and into the Northeast through the weekend. Friday will also see some showers turning to snow as this system extends northeast from Texas across Arkansas and Kentucky and as far north as the western portion of the Northeast and the Great Lakes.

Cold temperatures continue to plague the Champaign-Urbana area for Thursday and Friday. During the day Thursday highs will only get to 37 °F with a morning low of 20°F. Despite the cold temperatures the clouds will clear out this evening and we will have sunny and clear skies for tomorrow. Winds will be out of the SW at 6-13 mph. The cold doesn’t go anywhere for Friday with a high of 34°F and low of 23°F, but with the wind chill temperatures will feel more like they are in the lower 20s and teens. Skies will be mostly to partly cloudy throughout the day with a chance of some snow flurries in the late afternoon and a NW turning to N wind at 10-19 mph.

Tuesday, February 7 and Wednesday, February 8

A fast moving low -pressure system tracks across the Plains into the Ohio Valley and Northeast dropping some light snow and rain as it passes through Tuesday and into Wednesday. A strong ridge will build behind this system bringing calm weather to the Northern and Central Plains for the day Wednesday. Meanwhile rain, wind and snow target the West Coast for Tuesday. The graphic (to the right) indicates the high pressure that builds over the Central states early Wednesday with the purple color indicating areas of precipitation.

For international news, a strong earthquake coming in at 6.7-magnitude hit the Central Philippines early Monday morning (late Sunday night in U.S.) toppling buildings, causing landslides and reportedly killing 43 people thus far.

For Champaign-Urbana, we can expect some minor winter weather to head our direction. For Tuesday, we will still reach a daytime high of 41°F with an early morning low of 27 °F. Cloud cover throughout the day Tuesday will remain mostly cloudy with a chance of rain during the day turning to a wintry mix or light snow overnight as the temperature drops below freezing. Winds will alternate from the W/NW to N with speeds increasing in the later hours at 5-15 mph. For Wednesday, temperatures will sadly drop back down to the 30s with a high of 34°F and an overnight low of 24°F. Wednesday will become partly sunny after a small chance of flurries in the morning hours along with a NW becoming W wind at 5-10mph.

Thursday, February 2 and Friday, February 3

As most of the nation has remained calm this week, a low pressure system sitting over the Southwest tomorrow afternoon will bring chaos to the Rockies and Plains starting late Thursday into Friday evening. This system will cause a wide range of precipitation with blizzards and heavy snowfall anywhere from 6-14 inches effecting the Central Rockies and Plains. This low will also create heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast and potentially powerful thunderstorms in parts of Texas and Oklahoma that will produce damaging winds and hail. Good day to be a Midwesterner!

For the Champaign-Urbana area we have seen a string of beautiful days, however somehow amazingly enough we have not managed to break any records. As the new month begins, we gear up for Groundhog Day tomorrow and we can expect a day that makes us think that the groundhog won't see it’s shadow and winter is almost over! Tomorrow, we can see a daytime high of 52 °F and an early morning low of 33°F. Most of the day will remain mostly sunny with a calm W/NW wind at 3-7 mph. For Friday, another above-normal day with a high of 52°F and a low of 35°F. Cloud cover will be partly sunny throughout the day becoming mostly cloudy overnight with a possible chance of showers in the evening hours. Winds will be mainly from the E ranging from 10-20 mph.