Tuesday, April 24 and Wednesday, April 25

Wednesday a low- pressure system moves down from Central Canada and creates a warm front across the upper Midwest Wednesday morning along with a cold front extending back behind into the Northern Plains/ Pacific Northwest. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms will be possible north and northeast of this warm front due to instability from relatively high MCAPE values from 2,000-4,000 J/kg. The chances of thunderstorms increase at night for the Midwest and Ohio Valley, as the nocturnal low- level jet will aid thunderstorm development. Within the warm sector of this low- pressure system we will see record high temperatures from the Northern to Southern Plains Wednesday with temperatures possibly breaking 100 degrees in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. The Northern Plains and upper Midwest will also see temperatures in the 50s, 60s and even low 70s. The following graphics show you the large warm sector between the two synoptic fronts, while the next graphic depicts the temperatures expected within the warm sector. The final graphic shows the departure from normal highs for April 25^th with some areas of the Central and Southern Plains expected to be up to 20 degrees above normal! 

In Champaign-Urbana on Tuesday we can expect to see a daytime high of 65°F after a morning low of 39°F. Skies will remain mostly to partly cloudy throughout the day with a possible spotty shower in the morning and/or evening hours. Winds will be from the WNW at 5-11 mph. On Wednesday, temperatures will rise as a warm front moves through Wednesday afternoon bringing temperatures up to a high of 75°F from a morning low of 46°F. As this warm front passes through we will see some chances of rain and isolated thunderstorms ahead of it. Chances of rain and isolated thunderstorms begin Wednesday afternoon around 1 pm and continue on into Wednesday evening. Cloud cover on Wednesday will be partly cloudy with periods of sunshine throughout the day and winds will be from the SSE at 6-14 mph.

Thursday, April 19 and Friday, April 20

A rather large low- pressure system moves across the Central Plains and into the Midwest Thursday into Friday afternoon with the potential to produce some severe thunderstorms in the intersection between Iowa, Kansas and Missouri and extending down into Northwestern Oklahoma. The main danger with these storms is possible damaging winds and hail, however tornadoes are not of much concern right now due to lack of instability, storm-relative helicity and low level moisture. We will likely see the dry line over the Southern Plains meet and be overrun by the progressing cold front moving along the Central Plains during Thursday evening. The cold front will continue to surge northeast and extends southeastward to eastern Texas producing a long line of showers and thunderstorms along it throughout Friday. The following graphic depicts the composite reflectivity expected Friday afternoon showing you just how far this line of storms extends.

Finally, Champaign-Urbana is nearing 80 degrees yet again! Thursdays early morning low only dips down to 50 °F, while the high is expected to get up 78°F in the afternoon. Clouds will be increased during the morning hours, but will begin clearing in the early afternoon leaving the remainder of the day mostly sunny. It will also be a bit breezier with SSW winds ranging from 9-21 mph. As a cold front cuts across Illinois Friday morning, rain showers will follow behind it. Thus, showers are likely in the early morning hours with rain chances continuing into the afternoon hours. As cold air sets in behind the front Friday afternoon, we will only reach a high of 58°F on Friday with a low dipping down to 40°F by Friday evening. Cloud cover will be mostly cloudy to overcast throughout the day into the evening.

Tuesday, April 17 and Wednesday, April 18

Tuesday in Champaign-Urbana will prove to be a beautiful April day after a round of storms has been pouring down on the region over the past few days. Tuesday will be mostly sunny with calm variable winds at 1-6 mph. Temperatures are expected to reach a daytime high of 67 °Fwith an early morning low of only 42°F. Again all is quiet as we move into Wednesday as we expect another mostly sunny day with a high of 70 °F and a low of 47°F expected. It will be slightly windier with a generally S wind at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph possible.

Thursday, April 12 and Friday, April 13

There will be a slight warm up in store for Champaign-Urbana on Thursday with a high of 62°F, but temperatures will get frigid in the morning with a low of 30°F. The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning from 1am to 8am to warn those that need to protect any sensitive vegetation or plants from the crop-killing temperatures. Thursday will be the last dry day without any rain in the forecast up until next Tuesday! As a high- pressure system continues to sit over the Midwest we’re going to see mostly sunny skies Thursday with a calm S wind at 3-7 mph. For Friday the rainy days start. There will be a slight chance of rain and even some possible thunderstorms up until Friday night. Chances of showers and thunderstorms are lower during the day, but will increase as we head into Friday evening. Temperature wise, we’ll have a high of 64°F with a morning low of 40°F. Cloud cover will remain mostly cloudy throughout the day with a SE wind at 7-19 mph.

Thursday, April 5 and Friday, April 6

Tuesday proved to be a very active severe weather day in Texas with 18 reported tornadoes primarily in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. In addition to the tornadoes we saw damaging wind reports as well as hail as large as baseballs! Check out this link to a video of a tractor- trailer being picked up by one of the Dallas, TX tornadoes! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LN5Izcf-z9k

The threat of tornadoes has diminished in Texas tonight, but there are still thunderstorms plaguing the south and east Thursday. The following video will show you the radar loops that show the Low Pressure system moving through beginning at roughly 7am CDT to 7pm CDT along with the heavy precipitation possible with these storms. The next image shows the 24 accumulation of rain after the storms move through Thursday. Lastly, the Storm Prediction Center also outlines the areas of thunderstorms that have a slight risk of becoming severe. The storms that come Thursday do not have the same severity as yesterday’s storms in Texas, however if these storms continue to move through these regions as repetitively as they have been these areas could begin to deal with the chances of flooding.

For Champaign-Urbana on Thursday we start the day off with a slight chance of rain showers that will start the day off as overcast, but we will see periods of clouds and sun throughout the rest of the day. Temperature wise, temperatures will continue to remain closer to normal with a high of 60°F and an early morning low of 44°F, while winds will be from the NE at 5-13 mph. For Friday, we are under a Freeze Watch from 3am-8am that has the potential to kill crops and sensitive vegetation. The early morning low will drop down to a frigid 33°F, but will pick back up to 61°F during the day. Similarly, the winds on Friday will be ENE becoming ESE at 7-11 mph.

Tuesday, April 3 and Wednesday, April 4

This video depicts the repetitive systems that will continue to propagate across the Central Plains and into the Midwest and Mississippi Valley Tuesday and Wednesday. The two next colorful graphics illustrate the amount of CAPE and negative Lifted Index that prove as substantial ingredients for convection and potentially severe thunderstorms. These two graphics specifically depict the ingredients that will be present Tuesday evening and in areas where the two ingredients overlap we will likely see thunderstorms as they follow along an advancing cold front.

In Champaign-Urbana on Tuesday temperatures will remain at record heat with a high of 85°F and a low of 54°F. We’re also in store for some possible scattered showers and spotty thunderstorms during the late afternoon that have the potential to continue on throughout the evening and into early Wednesday morning. However, before Tuesday’s possible storms we will see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and SE winds turning SW with speeds between 6-13 mph. Come Wednesday, we won’t need to turn on the air conditioning as the high is likely to only reach 69°F, while the low may get down to 46°F. Wednesday will remain mostly sunny, but we may see some isolated thunderstorms and showers developing during the evening hours. In addition, winds will be from the NE at 9-16 mph.